Scenarios and Warning Signs for Ajeya's Aggressive, Conservative, and Best Guess AI Timelines

This post is cross-posted to LessWrong, a rationality and AI safety community. May contain more jargon than usual. Epistemic status: mild confidence that this provides interesting discussion and debate. Credits to (in no particular order) Mark Xu, Sydney Von Arx, Jack Ryan, Sidney Hough, Kuhan Jeyapragasan, and Pranay Mittal for resources and feedback. Credits to Ajeya (obviously), Daniel Kokotajlo, Gwern, Robin Hanson, and many others for perspectives on timeline cruxes. This post was written as part of a 10-week AI Safety Fellowship run by Mark.
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